Based upon my estimates today, the US CO2 market may approach around 9.8 million short tons of utilisation this year, with most sectors essentially following the relative growth (or shortfall) within the corresponding markets of the sectors they serve. Globally, this merchant market total is over 20 million tons annually.
In terms of specific end-user markets, food processing is resilient and growing, while enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is generally hoping for growth, however, looking for prices to at least exceed $60/barrel; coupled with a strong sense of sustainability to develop significant new ventures. Oil today is well supplied, so EOR may not play out in the near future.
The US merchant CO2 industry is well supplied by a strong mix of varying source types, with a grand total of merchant plants numbering over 100 sources as plant locations. Fermentation represents over 40% of the total; then to follow are ammonia plants, reformers and natural sources. The balance includes flue gas recovery from coal-fired cogeneration plants, natural gas processing (MEA) recovery, ethylene oxide, and others. Some of the major gas companies are generally looking to diversify their supply portfolio, and not include too many sources of one type, such as ethanol; thereby improving sustainability.
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