The shortages of merchant carbon dioxide (CO2) during the summer of 2020 are perhaps unprecedented in many ways. First, in the winter, and into the spring, came the lockdown, and reduction of industry and the economy precipitated by Covid-19.
The reduction in gasoline consumption, and subsequently the ethanol added, has suffered a steep decline in many markets, particularly during the spring of this year. Ethanol production, per the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), averaged 1.04 mm barrels per day during the first quarter (Q1) in the US. In Q2, it was predicted to fall to 630,000 barrels; while in the third quarter, increasing to 740,000 barrels. In Q4, 860,000 barrels.
Along with this, there was a drop in production and availability from certain CO2 plants associated with ethanol plants which led to the first shortage. Beyond this are other source types, such as anhydrous ammonia, experiencing outages in Ohio and planned for Virginia, as well as other outages.
What were the worst months for supply, and are things getting back to normal, an if so, how?
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