As we anticipated in our February 2013 report (“Latin America Shows Its Resilience but Growth Moderates,” CryoGas, February 2013, p. 42) economic growth continued in Latin America, registering a three percent increase in 2012, but at a slower pace than in 2010 and 2011 when the economy grew at 6.1 and 4.5 percent respectively.
The total Latin American industrial gas market was flat in 2012, affected by lower GDP growth and a weaker currency in Brazil, but compensated by growth in gas sales in the other countries of the region.
The Latin American Economy
In 2012, Brazil, representing 43.5 percent of Latin American GDP, had a disappointing year with GDP growth of only 0.9 percent (see Figure 1). Mexico, which accounts for 20 percent of the regional economy, saw its economy continue to improve and grew by 3.9 percent, fueled by the better performance of the US economy. In Argentina, with the third largest share (8.0%) of the regional economy, GDP slowed and grew by only 1.9 percent, well below the previous year’s rate. Colombian GDP was up by 4.0 percent, while the Venezuelan economy grew 5.5 percent. The economy of Chile went up by 5.5 percent, and in Peru GDP again grew by a strong 6.3 percent.
The most recent forecasts for 2013 and 2014 remain cautious. According to the April 2013 World Economic Outlook issued by the International Monetary Fund, Latin American GDP is estimated to go up by 3.4 percent in 2013 and 3.9 percent in 2014, slightly lower than its previous estimate. The world economy is projected to grow at 3.3 percent per year in 2013, with advanced economies only growing by 1.2 percent, and growth in China moderating to 8.0 percent.
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