Energy research specialist Rystad Energy (Rystad) has revealed that an escalation of military tensions between Russia and Ukraine could put up to 155bn cubic metres per year of natural gas imports to Europe at risk, equating to 30% of Western Europe’s annual gas demand.
The threat is compounded by current five-year lows of gas stocks and high volatility in international liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices.
Although unlikely, a complete shut-off of Russian exports would cause Europe to struggle to meet its gas needs, especially Eastern Europe, which is most reliant on Russian imports.
Less affected would be Western Europe, which has ‘nearly enough’ LNG import capacity to replace all Russian gas but would need support from nations such as the US and Japan to make up the difference – around 8 Bcm of domestic production.
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